Saturday, October 25, 2014

Inflation Expectations: TIP/TLT ratio

In 2013 inflation expectations were back on the rise after falling sharply in 2011 from the post-2009 reflation.  Most people expected the Fed would be able to meet its inflation targets due to steady economic growth. There was even talk of rate rises without a deflationary impact.

However, a calm look at the charts showed that this was just a wave B consolidation in the "inflation" bear market that has been in effect since 2011. See my previous post from Sept 2013 here: http://elliottwavecounts.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/inflation-expectations-and-tiptlt-ratio.html

Not surprisingly, the bear market in "inflation" has re-asserted itself and Precious Metals and Miners have sold off. Any nascent expectations of inflation or of rate rises have now evaporated. 

The wave-count below suggests that this trend still has some way to go, and could easily continue into the late 2015 ECM turn date. 









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