AAPL update

With the blowout earnings  and the after-market jump in shares, the recent 12% correction becomes a 3 wave affair.

Now I think wave (v) of the advance from Nov 2011 is underway in AAPL. Whether that advance is wave 5 or wave 3 (alt count) remains to be seen. Only a decline below 550 will invite reassessment.

AAPL Longer term count

Dr. Copper looks bearish

Could Dr. Copper be signalling a Chinese hard-landing? Here is a bearish looking chart with a massive Head & Shoulders topping pattern.

A NEoWave Contracting Triangle (A > C > E) with Reverse Alternation (D > B instead of the usual B > D) is shown. 

Alternative counts like a  multi-year Contracting Triangle or Ending Diagonal are also possible.

SPX Update - 2012/04/11

On Tuesday market closed at 1357, the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the uptrend from wave 4. Below this level, the Ending Diagonal count to 1440 is no longer favoured. However it can only be eliminated below the wave 4 low at 1340.

SPX's clean break below 1375 suggests that wave (4) may have begun. A backtest and subsequent rejection of the 1375 level will strengthen the case that wave (3) has ended.

Wave (4) can retrace up to 50% of wave (3) to around 1300/1310. More likely it will find support at the wave 4 low of 1340. For alternation with wave (2) it will most likely take the form of a Triangle, Flat or combination.

For clarity, here is the Ending Diagonal count: