The ratio of ETFs TIP &TLT forms a useful inflation barometer.
During the deflation scare of 2008 TIP under-performed TLT. The initial QE rounds resulted in a reflation that led to heightened inflation expectations.
However since mid-2011 inflation expectations have cooled off. TLT has been in a downtrend channel relative to TIP starting with a sharp decline, and followed by a long consolidation.
Now this ratio is in a resistance area defined by previous levels and at the top of a downtrend channel. A renewed decline from here would put pressure on inflation trades - Gold, EM, miners, banks, etc.
A breakout would be a very interesting surprise, given the shrinking effectiveness of the QE measures in stoking inflation expectations.
