Vivek Patil has been doing analysis on the SENSEX since 1997-98. I find his NEowave analysis very thorough and well researched. His latest update is here: http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_20127993737.asp. Its quite a long and comprehensive report. Bottom line, he is suggesting that the current rally will run out of steam somewhere around the 19,000 mark in the next few of weeks. From there it could fall to 15,000 or below.
If his forecast is correct, it could lead to similar patterns in other Asian indices. Some charts from his updates are shown below. They zoom in from a multi-decade picture to the short term chart (shown in the end).
Exhibit 1. MULTI-YEAR FORECAST (since 1979)
The sell-off that started in Jan 2008 marked the beginning of a multi-year consolidation. The 2008 bear market was wave 'a'. It was completely retraced by wave 'b'. Wave 'c' completed recently and now wave 'd' is forming. This will be followed by a sell-off in wave 'e' that will end below the recent wave 'c' bottom (around 15,200). Following that will be a rally in wave 'f' that will make new highs. Finally, the consolidation that started in Jan 2008 will end in a sharp selloff in wave 'g'. Form here a new bull market is likely to be born.
Exhibit 2. A detailed wave-count for the Bull Market since 2003
Exhibit 3: Previous year's bear market wave circle-C is now being partially retraced by wave circle-D
Wave circle-D is forming as an a-b-c "Flat". Usually in a Flat wave c = wave a ... hence the target of around 19,000
