I started from a clean slate, trying to count all the waves on the ES (SPX futures) since mid-December.
One of the things that bothered me about the impulsive counts so far is the lack of a proper impulsive, powerful move during this entire period.
One possible way to interpret this rather difficult-to-count period has surprised me. It could be that the period until Jan 26th was a long wave 1. That would put us in the initial stages of a 3rd wave. With most EW analysts focused on completion of bearish long-term counts, this wave count could surprise people and provide the acceleration at the "point-of-recognition" that has been missing so far.
Although my Q1 2012 Forecast calls for an upcoming consolidation period, I think its important to track this as a possible wave count as a valid possibility if the next correction doesn't go beneath 1300-1315.
One of the things that bothered me about the impulsive counts so far is the lack of a proper impulsive, powerful move during this entire period.
One possible way to interpret this rather difficult-to-count period has surprised me. It could be that the period until Jan 26th was a long wave 1. That would put us in the initial stages of a 3rd wave. With most EW analysts focused on completion of bearish long-term counts, this wave count could surprise people and provide the acceleration at the "point-of-recognition" that has been missing so far.
Although my Q1 2012 Forecast calls for an upcoming consolidation period, I think its important to track this as a possible wave count as a valid possibility if the next correction doesn't go beneath 1300-1315.
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