Friday, January 20, 2012

Microsoft forecast

Main Count (RED)
  • The very long term count shows MSFT in an impulsive wave I that ended at the 2000 high. 
  • A long drawn out wave II ended in March 2009. 
  • This was followed by a lower degree impulsive wave 1 that terminated in Jan 2010. 
  • The price action has been corrective since then.
  • The stock has rallied nicely in a 'b' wave to the top of the channel as shown by the corrective count in RED. 
  • If this is correct, we should now see a 'c' wave correction to the low 20s before a resumption of the impulsive rally.
Alternate Count (BLUE)
  • A close above $31.6 would signal a breakout targeting $40 or $50 and change focus for the larger degree count to the one shown in light blue. 
  • That would result in a rally to 40 or $50, but that would be followed by a severe correction creating a new low below 14.62 a few years in the future.

(click for higher resolution)


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