Saturday, October 15, 2011

Natural Gas setup (NG) and long-term counts

Since the remarkable sell-off in 2008, Natural Gas has been pretty much range-bound for 2 years. It appears to be building a base for an explosive move upwards.

The main count establishes a bottom at $2.408 which could begin right here. A (1)-(2)-1-2 wind-up can be counted here. The RED & GREEN counts (combined as BROWN) are illustrated in the chart. This immediate trade setup is wrong below $3.25.

The first alternative (not illustrated) is for wave (2) to go lower. This count would be wrong below $2.408.

Breaking below $2.408 would shift focus to an alternative count (illustrated in VIOLET), which is equally valid at this point. It involves breaking below $2.408 to complete an Ending Diagonal - a very reliable pattern that usually precedes a violent reversal. That count would be invalidated below $1.62.


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