Saturday, June 13, 2009

Critical NatGas level - 1-2-1-2 or triangle?



Natgas looks like it could have completed a 4th wave triangle just inside of the multi-month downward channel. A break outside the channel would be very bullish. However there is a compelling count that suggests a sharp thrust downwards to complete the 5th wave. Use stops at UNG 13.25 if long & reduce positions to limit losses in case of a stee drop!!

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Natural Gas (1)-(2)-1-2



Very good RR here. If the main (blue) count is wrong, it has to break the previous low. Expect a reversal at the 78.6% retracement. Prepare to load up - stops at UNG 13.25!!

Monday, May 25, 2009

GDX gold miner's ETF has a breakout



GDX did not make new lows with the broader stock market in March.

It has now broken above the descending trendline with bullish Cup and Handle & inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) patterns.

The EW count is also bullish for a further upside. It has been a great run up for this ETF from a low of 15.5 and is likely to continue at least till at least 55 based on the initial H&S target.

However, if Gold and the broader markets turns lower we may see a de-leveraging (C) wave to complete wave IV (green count).

The more bullish alternative is that wave IV was in at 15.5 and that we will see much higher prices soon. However, this seems less likely due to the impending correction in gold and in the broader markets.