NDX near channel support and 38.2% retracement

A good spot to find support and rally in wave (v). Daily RSI getting to oversold to levels. Only lower in Oct 2008 and in the 2011 panic.

Definitely the strongest looking of all the major US indices.

Precious Metals Mining on Sale

A "historic buying opportunity" keeps getting better, but I wonder where the mining stocks bottom ???

Senior Gold Miners ETF

Silver Miners ETF

Junior Gold Miners ETF

SPX Update 2012-05-09

See Previous update here.

A Flat a-b-c correction for wave (4) alternates nicely with the sharper and deeper wave (2). Wave (4) has done enough to count as completed, and if so, we should now see a move to 1440 or 1510 in wave (5). Clearing potential resistance levels at 1375, 1390 and 1400 provides increasing confidence in this scenario. Wave (4) may also evolve into a more complex correction so we will keep an eye out for that.

An alternate count is presented for the bears. It calls for a weak corrective bounce followed by an impulsive break below recent lows. However, I wouldn’t bet on it in the face of any rise above 1400.

Crude Oil Update 2012-05-09

If the a-b-c decline from $110 is complete, we may have formed wave d of a Contracting Triangle with Reverse Alternation (BROWN). In Contracting Triangles a < c < e. In normal alternation b > d, which gives us a familiar contracting shape. However in reverse alternation b < d. Note that wave c of a triangle cannot be the shortest, capping wave e at $114.12. Wave e is 0.618 * wave c, at around $107. Declining below $92.5 would call this scenario into question.

AAPL update

With the blowout earnings  and the after-market jump in shares, the recent 12% correction becomes a 3 wave affair.

Now I think wave (v) of the advance from Nov 2011 is underway in AAPL. Whether that advance is wave 5 or wave 3 (alt count) remains to be seen. Only a decline below 550 will invite reassessment.

AAPL Longer term count

Dr. Copper looks bearish

Could Dr. Copper be signalling a Chinese hard-landing? Here is a bearish looking chart with a massive Head & Shoulders topping pattern.

A NEoWave Contracting Triangle (A > C > E) with Reverse Alternation (D > B instead of the usual B > D) is shown. 

Alternative counts like a  multi-year Contracting Triangle or Ending Diagonal are also possible.

SPX Update - 2012/04/11

On Tuesday market closed at 1357, the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the uptrend from wave 4. Below this level, the Ending Diagonal count to 1440 is no longer favoured. However it can only be eliminated below the wave 4 low at 1340.

SPX's clean break below 1375 suggests that wave (4) may have begun. A backtest and subsequent rejection of the 1375 level will strengthen the case that wave (3) has ended.

Wave (4) can retrace up to 50% of wave (3) to around 1300/1310. More likely it will find support at the wave 4 low of 1340. For alternation with wave (2) it will most likely take the form of a Triangle, Flat or combination.

For clarity, here is the Ending Diagonal count: