GLD at top of declining channel

The decline from 137.5 peak in August is best counted as a corrective Double Zig-Zag (abc-x-abc) with the last declining "c" leg yet to unfold. The 

We are now at the top of the declining channel. If the top rail acts as a resistance we should see an impulsive decline. Support come in around 120 from the longer-term bear flag.

Tesla Downgrade

Appears to be the end of wave (3) and a good time to short this bubble stock!

Inflation Expectations and the TIP/TLT ratio

The ratio of ETFs TIP &TLT forms a useful inflation barometer. 

During the deflation scare of 2008 TIP under-performed TLT. The initial QE rounds resulted in a reflation that led to heightened inflation expectations. 

However since mid-2011 inflation expectations have cooled off. TLT has been in a downtrend channel relative to TIP starting with a sharp decline, and followed by a long consolidation. 

Now this ratio is in a resistance area defined by previous levels and at the top of a downtrend channel. A renewed decline from here would put pressure on inflation trades - Gold, EM, miners, banks, etc.

A breakout would be a very interesting surprise, given the shrinking effectiveness of the QE measures in stoking inflation expectations.

GBP/USD Triangle projects a decline to 1.25, stop at 1.6746

A Symmetrical Triangle in GBP/USD has meandered its way to completion over 5 years. A decline to 1.25 is projected here. Wrong above 1.6746.

Palladium risks drop to $485, needs above $775 to breakout

EUR/GBP breaks below uptrend-line

• A Double Zig-zag correction appears to be unfolding since the 2009 top. 
• Short EUR/GBP with a stop at 0.8769 targeting 0.75. 
• Additional confidence below 0.8164.

Currencies Update

Dollar Index at channel support. Likely paths for rally shown below. Also see contracting Weekly RSI range.

EUR/USD has multiple resistance lines just above. Good spot to fade.

Symmetrical triangle on GBP/USD. A break below wave D @ 1.4833 to confirm a decline along the projected path. 

EUR/GBP has the makings of a Double Zig-Zag which should decline to new lows (0.75). A decline below 0.8164 to confirm. The decline should remain contained within the declining channel.

USD/JPY resistance at 100-105 worked. Now looking for a possible Triangle wave 4. Wave 4 must not retrace past 87.36, otherwise the impulsive count is called into question.

The AUD/USD weakness projected last year has finally materialised. Oversold Weekly RSI suggests that this pair may get a respite for a month or two before resuming a decline.