USD view of Emerging Markets

EEM: MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 

Despite the excitement of the last couple of weeks Emerging markets continue to remain a 4 yr-old contracting range (in USD terms). 

Same for the Weekly RSI.

FXI: China Large Caps (USD) 

China remains the bellwether market for EM and commodities. Key indicators like AUD, CAD, Copper, will take direction from Chinese demand. 

Continues in a pennant formation, which no clear view as to which way it will break.

INP: India (USD) ETF

Indian markets are at new highs in Rupee terms. In dollar terms the SENSEX has done nothing for 4 years. 

Now against long-standing resistance with an overbought RSI, the India USD ETF is at risk of an unpleasant correction.

RSX: Russia (USD) ETF

The wave count allows for further lows, but has done enough to be a completed decline. Weekly RSI is pretty oversold.

EWZ: Brazil (USD) ETF

The wave count here too allows for further lows, but when the Falling Wedge breaks this market can fly like a rocket. Weekly RSI showing positive divergence from oversold.

Commodities perking up

Encouraging signs for commodity bulls as the CCI held an important long-term support level at 500 (see longer term charts below).

 

The index is short-term overbought for now, but if the recent lows survive a re-test I expect a continued advance over the next few months.

 

 

 

Several Risk markets at technical support levels

S&P 500 at channel and trendline support since 

Eurozone ETF (USD) - since 2008 top

EMERGING MARKETS (USD) ETF

CHINA LARGE CAP (USD) ETF

USD JPY

Platinum at a significant support level

Trade away from $1360 ... buy a rally from channel support, sell a break.

OEW count (alternate take)

A good weekend update by Tony Caldaro's OEW group is posted here: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/11/30/weekend-update-425/

My take on the OEW impulsive count on the Dow is below. Ignore the implications of a higher degree due to the labeling - it doesn't mean anything in my chart.

The modification I have made is to provide for alternation between waves 2 and 4. An Irregular Flat 4 indicates that the uptrend's momentum is strong, and that wave 5 will not be weak and truncated (already confirmed).

A similar count in the SPX has an Irregular Triangle instead of an Irregular Flat

GLD at top of declining channel

The decline from 137.5 peak in August is best counted as a corrective Double Zig-Zag (abc-x-abc) with the last declining "c" leg yet to unfold. The 

We are now at the top of the declining channel. If the top rail acts as a resistance we should see an impulsive decline. Support come in around 120 from the longer-term bear flag.

Tesla Downgrade

Appears to be the end of wave (3) and a good time to short this bubble stock!