Gold inflexion point at 1115

Last stop for impulse count out of triangle is 1115 where wave 3 could become the shortest of the 5 waves. This is a critical spot.

After that we would have to consider the move off $680 to be an impulse with a series of very bullish 1-2-1-2s and see then we should see much higher highs.

Although gold is looking extremely bullish right now, the divergence created by no new highs in gold miners (GDX) and silver (SLV) makes me worry that this is a blowoff top.

Case for top already in

A dollar count to go with the market top in case the market turns down here. Its still 50:50 but there is a valid count for a dollar bottom - it could have been made already.

The case for one more high

Complex correction upwards on the SPX



Much simpler wedge pattern on the DOW. When it breaks the lower trendline, look for a kissback and down she goes!

SPX decline not impulsive - needs another high

Dollar needs another low so its likely that SPX & EUR need another high

SPX:



DX:


DX short term:


EUR Long Term:



EUR short term:

SPX top is in (Alt count: wave 2)

Top seems to be in: Either a Leading diagonal or a (i)-(ii)-i-ii unfolding

Possible SPX count indicating a top

If we are in Grand Supercycle Wave IV, look out below!!

SPX - possible expanded diagonal update

Possible large ED tracing out in SPY

May be capped by the 103.42 October 2008 retracement.

GDX Gold Miner's ETF poised to fall

Gold Ending Diagonal

Prep`re for a great big fall here!

Natural Gas update

Natural Gas: 4th wave triangle complete?

Critical NatGas level - 1-2-1-2 or triangle?

Natgas looks like it could have completed a 4th wave triangle just inside of the multi-month downward channel. A break outside the channel would be very bullish. However there is a compelling count that suggests a sharp thrust downwards to complete the 5th wave. Use stops at UNG 13.25 if long & reduce positions to limit losses in case of a stee drop!!

Natural Gas (1)-(2)-1-2

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Very good RR here. If the main (blue) count is wrong, it has to break the previous low. Expect a reversal at the 78.6% retracement. Prepare to load up - stops at UNG 13.25!!

GDX gold miner's ETF has a breakout

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GDX did not make new lows with the broader stock market in March.

It has now broken above the descending trendline with bullish Cup and Handle & inverted Head and Shoulders (H&S) patterns.

The EW count is also bullish for a further upside. It has been a great run up for this ETF from a low of 15.5 and is likely to continue at least till at least 55 based on the initial H&S target.

However, if Gold and the broader markets turns lower we may see a de-leveraging (C) wave to complete wave IV (green count).

The more bullish alternative is that wave IV was in at 15.5 and that we will see much higher prices soon. However, this seems less likely due to the impending correction in gold and in the broader markets.

Long Bonds deteriorate rapidly

Long bond futures accelerating downwards for now. A possible count shown below, but we may also have (i)-(ii)-i-ii-1-2 here. Very bearish looking chart indeed.

Natural Gas Update

Pretty textbook impulse. c or 3rd wave in progress. Let's see how far it goes.

Great Indian Bull Market

India ETF showing clear impulsive rise from March.

Also the correction from the top seems a 3 wave affair rather than 5 five waves. The October 2008 low was not lost this year.

This clearly indicates that a bull market seems to have begun and we are in wave (1) of III. A correction seems to be imminent, and a higher low would be confirmation of this. That would be a great time for long term bull market trade.

Natural Gas Update

Three possibilities:
1. Wave (5) & C is complete
2. Expanded flat wave 4 (not shown)
3. Expanded flat wave (4)

Big bear rally update

A few possible bullish counts for a big bear rally to continue - i.e. no new lows on the SPX in the near future.

Naturl Gas Big Picture

Current Rally (Bull Count):

Current rally (bear count)


SPX Big Picture (Old Chart)


Old Gold Chart (bearish)